A public inquiry starting on September 28 will look at the Strategic Plan for the long-term development of the use of land in the island.
The Chamber of Commerce and Tynwald agree that inward migration is essential to sustain the Isle of Man’s economic grown by providing businesses across all sectors with the skilled employees they need.
So, housing is a big issue.
However, Chamber of Commerce chief executive Jane Dellar has some serious concerns about the data on which the Strategic Plan is based.
She wrote about it in the Isle of Man Examiner.
The draft Strategic Plan – like all planning processes – has to be based on sound, accurate data.
The Plan is fundamentally about housing, and population projection is one of the most important, perhaps the most important, inputs.
Therefore, if the projected population input data is unreliable then it brings into question the Strategic Plan as a whole.
When the Plan was originally drafted, it was based upon the best available population figures available from Government’s Economic Affairs Division and used the Government’s Population Projection Model.
This involved feeding in base year data and then operating on these figures by applying various adjusting factors to take the data forward in time.
These factors are fertility rates, mortality rates, net immigration levels and immigration age profile.
Each of the adjusting factors as used within the model is open to questioning.
But the principal concerns must surround the immigration assumptions because these are absolutely critical given the levels of immigration, and their variability, experienced on the island over a long period of time.
It is this criticality that leads Chamber to call into question the adoption of the immigration assumptions in the projections for housing demand in the draft plan without there having been an examination of their validity.
In this regard the implicit assumptions about the age distribution of the migrant population are as relevant as the absolute numbers being assumed.
Any such examination could not avoid but consider the relationship going forward between immigration and the island’s economic performance, its changing economic structure, and its attendant prospective labour requirements.
Tynwald has unanimously supported one of the Chief Minister’s key objectives for economic growth which is to increase the island’s working population by 500 to 1,000 people per year to achieve the targets set out in Vision 2020. However, as it stands, the Draft Strategic Plan assumes that Government’s inward migration targets will not be successful. Chamber has raised this matter with the Strategic Plan Inspector on the basis that the population projections are not consistent with the jobs growth envisaged in Vision 2020. Unfortunately, our request that the figures be reassessed was rejected.
We acknowledge that any projection of population growth and its broader impact on the economy – no matter how carefully it is calculated – will be subject to a degree of uncertainty. However, we strongly believe that the Draft Strategic Plan should be based on (and support) Government’s aims and objectives for growth in jobs and, therefore, population too.
Isle of Man Chamber of Commerce members are from businesses which represent around half of the private sector workforce on the island.
As the biggest business network here we are always eager to support and encourage Government initiatives which we believe will benefit the economy.
After all, promoting the continued prosperity of ‘IOMPLC’ is in everyone’s interest. But there are occasions when we have to openly challenge Government – and this is one such occasion.
The Strategic Plan is a vitally important document and will form the basis of policies which will affect everyone on the Island, and have a huge impact on the potential for economic growth. In essence, it is a building block which will form part of the foundations of the society which the current policy makers hand over to the next generation. We can’t build these foundations on guesswork, which is why Chamber feels so strongly that the population projection data used as the basis for the Strategic Plan needs to be questioned.
We believe that it is essential for the Economic Affairs Division to update the population projection to be fully consistent with the stated aims of the Council of Ministers and Tynwald.
Chamber will continue to lobby Government about this issue.