A ‘yes’ vote for Scottish independence will present both opportunities and threats to the Isle of Man.
That’s the personal view of House of Keys Speaker Steve Rodan who has family and friends in Scotland on both sides of the independence argument.
Mr Rodan said the referendum next Thursday is now too close to call – but it would have been a very different story if voters had been offered a third option on the ballot paper allowing Scotland to follow the Manx model of fiscal and political autonomy.
He said he was not surprised that polls were suggesting a small lead for the yes campaign for the first time – and suggested there had been a lot of complacency in the no campaign.
Mr Rodan said: ‘I said at the beginning of the year that you under-estimate the yes campaign at your peril. Back in 2011, two months before the Scottish general election Alex Salmond was running 15 points behind. At the election there was an outright SNP majority. That had not been predicted.
‘The yes campaign has been a campaign of the heart while the no campaign has been more of a campaign of the head. I always said it was going to be close but I thought there would be a narrow victory for the no campaign. But now who can say at this stage?’
Mr Rodan said David Cameron had agreed that the ballot papers would only give two choices - yes or no to independence. But if there had been a third option of ‘Devo Max’ this may have found favour with many people, he said.
‘If the ballot paper had had three questions and not two the outcome would be very different.
‘Devo Max is the Manx model where the island has full economic and political power short of sitting in the United Nations between India and Israel. But it was not put on the ballot paper.’
So what will be the impact if there is a vote in favour of Scottish independence?
Mr Rodan believes there will be both threats and opportunities, in the short and long terms.
He explained: ‘If there is a yes vote there will obviously be huge political and economic implications for the British economy to which the Isle of Man is so closely linked. Any detrimental impact on the pound or the markets will be felt in the island.
‘In the longer term there will be a friendly independent nation well disposed to the Isle of Man with whom we will no doubt have a very close cordial working relationship politically but which could become an economic rival for financial services with freedom to have different corporate tax rates to make it attractive to international business.
‘No doubt the Isle of Man will monitor this as nimbly and skilfully as it has in the past.’
Mr Rodan said there may well be opportunities for the island in the short term if companies currently based in Scotland take fright – these could be domiciled in the Isle of Man as a politically and economically stable jurisdiction.
During a visit to the island last year, Alex Salmond hailed the Manx currency model as an example of how an independent Scotland could retain the pound.
But Mr Rodan believes that’s not a good comparison, pointing out we don’t have a formal currency union and Manx notes are not legal tender in the UK. He said an independent Scotland would not want to feel beholden to the central bank in London as lender of last resort.